THE AIRLINER – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  There has been a potentially major development into the probe of the crash of a Russian airliner in the Sinai Saturday, killing 224.  From AP:

A Russian passenger plane that crashed in the Sinai desert was downed by “an external impact,” a top Russian airline official said Monday, ruling out the possibility of technical fault of pilot error.

Alexander Smirnov, the deputy general director of Metrojet, said the cause of the crash “could only have been an external impact on the plane” in the air.

When pressed for an explanation about what could have caused this impact, Smirnov insisted that he was not at liberty to discuss details because the investigation into the crash, which left 224 people dead, was ongoing.

Smirnov also said the crew did not send a distress call and did not contact traffic controllers before the crash.

“The crew totally lost control and for that reason there was not one attempt to get in contact,” Smirnov said, adding that the plane was in “excellent technical condition.”

Smirnov said the Airbus A320-200 dropped 300 kph (186 mph) in speed and 1.5 kilometers (about 5,000 feet) in altitude one minute before it crashed into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

The announcement came a day after Egyptian officials ruled out the possibility that the plane was downed by a missile, as jihadists affiliated with the Islamic State group claimed.

COMMENT:  Obviously, we cannot verify any of this, and one can argue that an airline executive would have a vested interest in steering attention away from possible mechanical defects or service issues involving his doomed aircraft.  At the same time, an airline executive would not want to call attention to the fact that his plane was flying through dangerous skies.

We know that the plane broke up in the air only minutes after taking off.  It is rare for a modern airliner to disintegrate.   Observers make the point that the plane was flying at about 30,000 feet when it disappeared from radar, far higher than the range of shoulder-launched missiles believed to be in the hands of terrorist groups.  No one has ruled out a bomb on board.  Or, a missile could have been fired from another aircraft.   

The black boxes have been recovered.  Assuming an honest investigation, and that is only an assumption, we should have more details soon.   But the statement by the Russian airline official brings to mind the nightmare scenario – airliners downed intentionally, posing a dire threat to the international airline system.

November 2,  2015